Shanghai - Final Weather Blog

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Shanghai 100 Million Years Ago (-100my): Compared to other locales around the globe, China has remained relatively stationary for the last -100 my. China’s physical location and orientation has not changed much because it is part of the large Eurasian land mass and a part of the Eurasian plate.  Shanghai has remained an Eastern coastal city in the Northern hemisphere and is roughly located at the same longitude and latitude.  

Source: Lecture Slides

-100my Shanghai, like the rest of the planet was in the Late Cretaceous Period.  The Vostock Ice core sample shows that that period in earth’s history is an inter-glacial  period.  The lack of glaciers  are caused by several naturally occurring processes working in concert to prevent an ice age. The most important of these factors are Milankovitch cycles, which describe cyclic changes in the Earth's eccentricity (the shape of the Earth's orbit), the tilt of the Earth's axis and the “wobble” of the Earth as it spins around its axis.  Sometimes these factors align to bring the Earth closer to the sun, which would cause an increase in surface temperature on  Earth.
 
Since the planet was warmer, and there were no glaciers, we can assume the overall sea level was higher than present day.  It is very likely that Shanghai was under water 100 mya.  

Source:NOAA

For the remaining analysis I will provide a description of the climatic conditions for a generic coastal location in what is now modern day China.

Despite the fact that the Eurasian landmass did not change much, we can infer some likely Macro, Meso and Micro scale climatic perturbations.


Macro: The physical location is similar to modern China, however other continents have changed. The movement of other continental plates and lack of global glaciations would dramatically change oceanic and atmospheric streams.  The lack of glacial ice in the northern hemisphere, would lead to warmer summers and warmer winters. The global increase in temperature would likely have made coastal China a warm and tropical location. (make up climagraphy)

Source:Weatheronline

Meso: Euraisia, would have still been the largest continental mass on the planet and subject to monsoon type events.  My assumption is, monsoon season would be longer and more intense with warmer sea surface temperatures.  The summer time temperatures would have been higher, causing sea surface temperature rise and build up of higher pressure over the ocean. That warm moist air would move inland and dump torrents of rain on China during the spring, summer and fall months.  Without the cooling periods during the winter months, there would not be the continental High-pressure systems that pushed cold air toward the East China Sea.  That would likely lead to year round precipitation for coastal China. 

Micro: The assumption that the year round temperature would have been warmer and precipitation would have been higher would have dramatic impacts on the local environment.  The increase in temperature and precipitation would have possibly allowed for more biodiversity.  Canopy like jungle vegetation would have completely changed the ground cover albedo for the region. The increase in precipitation would have also likely caused the creation of lakes, marshes, rivers and higher sea level. The increase in water coupled with the increase in vegetation would lead to higher humidity and foggy conditions.  

Source: NOAA

Shanghai 100 Million Years from now (+100my): Over the course of the next +100 my, there will likely be as many changes as the past 100my.  Continental drift will continue to occur and Milankovitch cycles will continue to define glacial and interglacial periods of future.  The predicted tectonic models generally show the re-formation of a world island in the Northern hemisphere.  Changing the distribution of continents and oceans will have a dramatic impact on the climate of China.  Additionally, the assumption for this analysis is the northern hemisphere is tilted away from the sun and highly elliptical, resulting in a glacial period for locations above 60 degrees north.  

Further Assumptions: Although extrapolation of data is sometimes dangerous and misleading, I believe it’s safe to assume the planet  will continue to experience periods of glaciations and inter-glaciations. If the Milankovitch cycles are extrapolated for the next 100my, there are dozens of periods when the earth is under an ice age.  It is possible, if not likely, that anyone of those periods would cause an extinction of the human race. 

The analysis presented in this portion of blog is derived from several wild assumptions and the hypothetically timeline (below) to contextualize and frame my logic. 

Source: Vostock Ice Sample

It is highly unlikely that humans will exist on this planet 100 thousand years from now, much less +100 million years from now.  The basis in my claim is based on the degradation of resources and the climate itself.  By most reasonable estimates we will collectively exhausted fossil based fuel source within the next  200-300 years.  It is unclear to me what direction we will take on the path of alternative energy, but unless there is a massive leap forward in technology, it will fall short of replacing fossil fuel.  In either case, the amount of CO2 actively being emitted into the atmosphere will no longer come from anthropogenic sources.  Removing the acceleration of anthropogenic sources from the climate change equation, essentially changes nothing in the big picture.  In the history of the world, extinction is the rule not the exception. In my opinion, it is highly unlikely modern civilization will survive an ice age. 

Source:weatheronline

Macro: Despite the fact that humans will no longer remain a factor in future Shanghai, we can infer the macro scale climate based on future land and ocean distributions.  Tectonic models show the formation of a large world island in the northern hemisphere.  That will have a dramatic impact on the climate of Shanghai. Shanghai will no longer boarder the broad ocean, instead it will be cut off by Australia.  There will  be a sea separating Shanghai and Australia (at least for a while).  The sea will serve to somewhat moderate the temperature of Shanghai However, the fact that the majority of northern latitudes are currently glaciers, the sea would  most likely be very cold water and Shanghai would be a cold dry climate. 

Meso: The formation of the new super continent would have change the meso scale climate controls for Shanghai as well.  Shanghai would no longer have the same monsoon cycles that it currently has.  The reason, Shanghai would now essentially be  a continental location vs a coastal location.  My assumption is when Australia and China collide; a massive mountain range will form.  The mountain range will put Shanghai  on the leeward side of the range and in a rain shadow, essentially boxed in from the South and East. That would make Shanghai a very cold and semi arid climate.  The dominate atmospheric circulations would be cold air funneled from the northern artic regions. Under new conditions, Shanghai will receive most of its annual rainfall and snowfall as direct result of having their own sea.  During the short summer months, the sea may receive enough solar radiation to cause convective heating and cause local “lake effect rain”.  During the winter, as cold air passes over the top of the warmer sea air masses, lake effect snow would develop.

Micro: The new Shanghai has a harsh environment that is very cold and arid.  The mountains prevent warm air from the south from moving in to during the summer months.  The area is likely a snowfield for most of the year.  Being covered in snow means most of the solar radiation is immediately reflected and the area benefits little from the short summers.  Biodiversity is minimal and most plants and animals are not able to sustain life.


Conclusion: +100my from now our legacy on earth’s surface will be a dirty spot in the ice for future life forms to wonder about.  Essentially, current discussions of climate change and its cause is nearly pointless.  There is undeniable evidence that the earth’s climate is changing, and there is compelling evidence that anthropogenic activity is accelerating that change.  The reality is, it does not matter. 


The conversation should shift from a blame-based dialog to a solution-based dialog.  The climate has and will continue change whether humans are part of the problem or part of the solution. In the mean time, the underlying issue is how much human suffering will come at the expense of failing to plan for the inevitable impacts climatic changes. 














Sources:
http://www.yale.edu/ynhti/curriculum/units/1991/6/91.06.05.x.html
http://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/dynamic/dynamic.html
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2000/ast06oct_1/
http://www.scotese.com/earth.htm
http://earthguide.ucsd.edu/virtualmuseum/climatechange2/03_1.shtml
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/ctl/100k.html
http://www.ucmp.berkeley.edu/mesozoic/cretaceous/cretaceous.html
http://www.scotese.com/lcretcli.htm
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/ctl/beyond.html
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/ctl/resourcebeyond.html