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Shanghai 100 Million Years Ago (-100my): Compared to other locales around the globe, China has remained relatively stationary for the last -100 my. China’s physical location and orientation has not changed much because it is part of the large Eurasian land mass and a part of the Eurasian plate. Shanghai has remained an Eastern coastal city in the Northern hemisphere and is roughly located at the same longitude and latitude.
Source: Lecture Slides |
Since the planet was warmer, and there were no glaciers, we can assume the overall sea level was higher than present day. It is very likely that Shanghai was under water 100 mya.
Source:NOAA |
Despite the fact that the Eurasian landmass did not change much, we can infer some likely Macro, Meso and Micro scale climatic perturbations.
Macro: The physical location is similar to modern China, however other continents have changed. The movement of other continental plates and lack of global glaciations would dramatically change oceanic and atmospheric streams. The lack of glacial ice in the northern hemisphere, would lead to warmer summers and warmer winters. The global increase in temperature would likely have made coastal China a warm and tropical location. (make up climagraphy)
Source:Weatheronline |
Meso: Euraisia, would have still been the largest continental mass on the planet and subject to monsoon type events. My assumption is, monsoon season would be longer and more intense with warmer sea surface temperatures. The summer time temperatures would have been higher, causing sea surface temperature rise and build up of higher pressure over the ocean. That warm moist air would move inland and dump torrents of rain on China during the spring, summer and fall months. Without the cooling periods during the winter months, there would not be the continental High-pressure systems that pushed cold air toward the East China Sea. That would likely lead to year round precipitation for coastal China.
Micro: The assumption that the year round temperature would have been warmer and precipitation would have been higher would have dramatic impacts on the local environment. The increase in temperature and precipitation would have possibly allowed for more biodiversity. Canopy like jungle vegetation would have completely changed the ground cover albedo for the region. The increase in precipitation would have also likely caused the creation of lakes, marshes, rivers and higher sea level. The increase in water coupled with the increase in vegetation would lead to higher humidity and foggy conditions.
Source: NOAA |
Further Assumptions: Although extrapolation of data is sometimes dangerous and misleading, I believe it’s safe to assume the planet will continue to experience periods of glaciations and inter-glaciations. If the Milankovitch cycles are extrapolated for the next 100my, there are dozens of periods when the earth is under an ice age. It is possible, if not likely, that anyone of those periods would cause an extinction of the human race.
The analysis presented in this portion of blog is derived from several wild assumptions and the hypothetically timeline (below) to contextualize and frame my logic.
Source: Vostock Ice Sample |
It is highly unlikely that humans will exist on this planet 100 thousand years from now, much less +100 million years from now. The basis in my claim is based on the degradation of resources and the climate itself. By most reasonable estimates we will collectively exhausted fossil based fuel source within the next 200-300 years. It is unclear to me what direction we will take on the path of alternative energy, but unless there is a massive leap forward in technology, it will fall short of replacing fossil fuel. In either case, the amount of CO2 actively being emitted into the atmosphere will no longer come from anthropogenic sources. Removing the acceleration of anthropogenic sources from the climate change equation, essentially changes nothing in the big picture. In the history of the world, extinction is the rule not the exception. In my opinion, it is highly unlikely modern civilization will survive an ice age.
Source:weatheronline |
Meso: The formation of the new super continent would have change the meso scale climate controls for Shanghai as well. Shanghai would no longer have the same monsoon cycles that it currently has. The reason, Shanghai would now essentially be a continental location vs a coastal location. My assumption is when Australia and China collide; a massive mountain range will form. The mountain range will put Shanghai on the leeward side of the range and in a rain shadow, essentially boxed in from the South and East. That would make Shanghai a very cold and semi arid climate. The dominate atmospheric circulations would be cold air funneled from the northern artic regions. Under new conditions, Shanghai will receive most of its annual rainfall and snowfall as direct result of having their own sea. During the short summer months, the sea may receive enough solar radiation to cause convective heating and cause local “lake effect rain”. During the winter, as cold air passes over the top of the warmer sea air masses, lake effect snow would develop.
Micro: The new Shanghai has a harsh environment that is very cold and arid. The mountains prevent warm air from the south from moving in to during the summer months. The area is likely a snowfield for most of the year. Being covered in snow means most of the solar radiation is immediately reflected and the area benefits little from the short summers. Biodiversity is minimal and most plants and animals are not able to sustain life.
Conclusion: +100my from now our legacy on earth’s surface will be a dirty spot in the ice for future life forms to wonder about. Essentially, current discussions of climate change and its cause is nearly pointless. There is undeniable evidence that the earth’s climate is changing, and there is compelling evidence that anthropogenic activity is accelerating that change. The reality is, it does not matter.
The conversation should shift from a blame-based dialog to a solution-based dialog. The climate has and will continue change whether humans are part of the problem or part of the solution. In the mean time, the underlying issue is how much human suffering will come at the expense of failing to plan for the inevitable impacts climatic changes.
Sources:
http://www.yale.edu/ynhti/curriculum/units/1991/6/91.06.05.x.html
http://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/dynamic/dynamic.html
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2000/ast06oct_1/
http://www.scotese.com/earth.htm
http://earthguide.ucsd.edu/virtualmuseum/climatechange2/03_1.shtml
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/ctl/100k.html
http://www.ucmp.berkeley.edu/mesozoic/cretaceous/cretaceous.html
http://www.scotese.com/lcretcli.htm
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/ctl/beyond.html
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/ctl/resourcebeyond.html